Headway
Headway increased ROAS by 67% using Churney's causal ML predictions
+67%
ROAS uplift
The Challenge
As a subscription-first app, Headway needed to understand which users would retain beyond the free trial. Standard value optimization was leading to high trial-to-paid drop-off rates.
The Solution
Churney's models analyzed early user engagement patterns to predict each user's long-term subscription value within the first 48 hours.
The Results
By sending these pLTV predictions to their acquisition channels, Headway saw a 67% improvement in ROAS. More importantly, the users they acquired had 40% higher retention at the 6-month mark.
"We finally understand the true value of each user at the point of acquisition. The retention improvement was an unexpected bonus."